Driving “vintage” cars will become an elitist hobby
Before they're outright banned, insuring non-autonomous cars will become cost-prohibitive. Just wait until the insurance companies run the numbers and realize autonomous cars don’t cost them anywhere near as much. The risk rate for any car with a human driver will skyrocket. That cost will naturally be absorbed by the group responsible for the highest percentage of accidents—human drivers. This is a simple market reality, and one that will cause fewer and fewer people to drive themselves.
Once the ban is firmly in place, the only place left to drive is on a race track, which means only a select few will be able to participate, since driving on a track tends to be a more expensive hobby than golf by an order of magnitude.
The Earl of March, the man we all have to thank for the Goodwood Festival of Speed, sums it up succinctly: “In the future people will want to buy real cars like they want to buy real watches: You’ll still pay a fortune for P1 McLarens because everyone still wants the mechanical deal. And for the man on the street who wants to buy a car for $5,000, he’ll just buy a self-driving thing.”