On the other hand: Maybe it's Marty! Scorsese's work in The Irishman will be a hit with a lot of voters. It's a master returning to the genre of his defining works, experimenting with ambitious technology, and doing some self examination in the process. He finally won an Oscar for The Departed, but his peers might find reason to honor him again for new one.
Noah Baumbach also seems like a sure thing for a nomination thanks to his dissection of divorce, Marriage Story. He's another long-lauded director with a Netflix film being hailed as a "masterpiece." The Academy hasn't always loved Baumbach's work: He only has a screenplay nod for 2005's The Squid and The Whale. Still, Marriage Story is different: Though he's playing with the same themes, he's operating on a deeper emotional level that's searing in its depiction of a couple coming apart.
I also suspect Bong Joon Ho will make it in for his satire and thriller about class in Korea, Parasite. It's hard to find anyone who doesn't think Parasite is a work of genius. Who gets the last spot then? Right now I'm going to say Greta Gerwig. She made it in for her debut, Lady Bird, and Little Women is receiving widespread acclaim as a revolutionary adaptation of a beloved novel. (Fun fact: She and Baumbach are a couple!) Another likely possibility? Sam Mendes, for 1917, the WWI drama filmed as if it were in one take. The Academy loves something showy and this is certainl it.
Then again, there are a lot of potential usurpers. If members fall hard for Taika Waititi's zany take on WWII, Jojo Rabbit, he could nab a nod. So could Clint Eastwood, if he's back on his game with Richard Jewell. Pedro Almodóvar would fit in well with all the other masters making soul-bearing material thanks to Pain and Glory.