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An Absurdly Deep Analysis of How Many Dilly Dillys To Expect During the Super Bowl

Super Bowl LII in Minneapolis is coming February 4. There are a lot of people for whom this is basically a religious holiday. That includes gads of gamblers. There's a lot of it going on, and a surprising amount of it is so absurd that it would play better in MAD Magazine than a betting site.

Referred to as prop bets, there are gambling odds on a host of bizarre topics. You can bet on how many ads Peyton Manning will appear in, how many times Donald Trump will tweet, and what color sleeveless sweatshirt Patriots coach Bill Belichick will don. Among the prop bets, you'll find one on the most pervasive ad of the NFL season: Bud Light's "Dilly Dilly." Even if you aren't sure what "Dilly Dilly" means, you can place a bet on it. 

At BetDSI, you can wager on how many times "dilly" will be said during the game. That's over the course of the entire game from kickoff to the trophy being placed in Tom Brady's fruit-starved hands. So, when a friend of the realm says "Dilly Dilly," that's twice. If you're getting in on that, you're selecting whether the broadcast will contain over or under 12.5 "dillys." (Again, "dilly dilly" counts as two.)

That's a tough one to guess because the exact number and length of ads isn't really known. Though, Anheuser-Busch InBev has the exclusive beer advertising rights to the game and Ad Age reports there will be at least one 60-second Bud Light commercial during the game.

How Many Times Will "Dilly" Be Said at the Super Bowl?

We don't know. But let's pretend to be a low-rent Nate Silver. Nate Quartz. Let's say Bud Light does take a 60-second ad, as reported by Ad Age. We could get an idea of how frequently the denizens of this fictional world say "dilly" by looking at the ads that have already been released.

Here's an analysis of every commercial based on the number of dillys that occur per 15 seconds of airtime. Say the village apothecary says "dilly dilly" and the court echoes the call, and that's all there is in a 30-second commercial. That would be four dillys over 30 seconds, meaning the Dilly Rate (the number of dillys per 15 seconds) would be 2.0.

Here's each commercial's Dilly Rate.

"Banquet": The debut "Dilly Dilly" ad includes 14 dillys over 45 seconds for a Dilly Rate of 4.67.

"Pit of Misery": This second spot contains 6 dillys over 30 seconds. That's a Dilly Rate of 3.0.

"Handouts": This was the first of two 15-second spots, which are arguably different than the others because they have a focus like promoting the "Super Bowl Tickets for Life" contest and not just existing in this pseudo-Game of Thrones universe. Nonetheless, this has a Dilly Rate of 2.0. 

"Wizard": This commercial has a Dilly Rate of 4 dillys per 15 seconds. 

"Sacrifice": Like "Handouts," this commercial has a single "dilly dilly" in its 15-second duration for a Dilly Rate of 2.0. 

"Ye Olde Pep Talk": This is the most recent "Dilly Dilly" commercial and has a Dilly Rate of 2.67 per 15 seconds.

The 15-second spots seem different, but to play it conservatively it makes sense to include them in a final Dilly Rate statistic, this world's version of WAR. (The kind of WAR that doesn't involve flaming arrows.) That gives a final Dilly Rate of 3.33 dillys per 15 seconds of ad time over the course of every commercial that has aired so far. 

If you take the dilly-ing rate and extend it, you're slightly over 13 dillys for a 60-second ad. You could again play conservatively and, knowing that dillys have thus far only come in twos, assume 13 dillys means 12. Now, the bet is how many dillys over the course of the entire Super Bowl broadcast. It would take just one broadcaster, fan or player saying "dilly dilly" to push it over the 12.5 threshold if the commercial did come in at 12 dillys.

We don't have an inside track on this, and we're not advocating gambling, but if you're looking at the numbers historically, it seems like taking the over on 12.5 dillys during the game isn't a bad guess. Then again, everything you just read is utter nonsense. Congratulations on reading it all. High five. 

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Dustin Nelson is a News Writer with Thrillist. He holds a Guinness World Record but has never met the fingernail lady. Follow him @dlukenelson.