New York & New Jersey Are Forecast to Have an Unseasonably Hot Fall & Winter

There's a chance La Niña conditions will extend into 2023, too.

The calendar may be approaching the end of summer, but New Yorkers and New Jerseyans probably won't need to bring out their winter coats for a while. La Niña, the periodic oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon tied to circulation of the Pacific Ocean, could bring hotter-than-normal temperatures to the East Coast in the next few months.

According to the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, La Niña could extend its stay a little longer, with a 91% chance of it lasting from September to November. For the New York and New Jersey regions, this will translate into above-average temperatures al least through November. More specifically, according to the service's map, both states have a 50-60% chance of witnessing these temperature changes.

Aside from northern states bordering Canada, the whole country will experience the temperature increase in the fall, with less rain for most of the country. Yet, New York and New Jersey are among the states that have the highest chances of an unseasonably hot fall, Pix 11 reports. Colorado, Utah, Texas, Pennsylvania, and states in New England are on the list, too.

The winter season in NY and NJ could also be affected by La Niña, but current models predict only a 54% chance of the phenomenon extending from January through March 2023. If this La Niña persists into the winter, it will be the third year of the conditions, which have affected New York’s winters in different ways. Meteorologist Garett Argianas told Gothamist that while winter of 2020-2021 was normal in temperature and above normal in snowfall, the winter of 2021 to 2022 presented below-normal snowfall and above-normal temperatures.

While La Niña can be helpful in predicting long-term conditions, it isn't the only factor affecting future seasons. "La Niña years are often associated with increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean. And that is the projection right now, is that for an above-normal season, though things are running a little bit behind compared to what the climatological normals are," Argianas told Gothamist. "One thing, obviously for New York City and for the whole East Coast, is to keep in mind that there's still a way to go in hurricane season here."

For more information on what to do and how to stay safe in case of a hurricane, you can visit our hurricane season guide.

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Serena Tara is a Staff Writer on the News team at Thrillist. Follow her on Twitter and Instagram.